Bitcoiner: Prepare This Strategy During October 2025

Bitcoin has been strengthening since the collapse of FTX in 2022.

FTX is one of the Centralized Exchanged Cryptocurrency companies in America that controls the funds of customers who want to make transactions on crypto exchanges.

Bitcoin prices have soared since November 2022 to reach US$15,800 or around Rp264.63 million (US dollar exchange rate Rp16, 685) to reach US$114,300 or Rp1.91 billion today (3/10/2025).

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But this is an anomaly in Bitcoin price movements because the tendency for the Fed's interest rate to fall should have a positive impact on Bitcoin historically.

Rate Cut Anomalies:

The anomaly in Bitcoin occurred when the US central bank the Federal Reserve (the Fed) in mid-September 2025 cut interest rates by 25 bps to the level of 4.00% -4.25%.

This rate cut triggered a significant selling action until it fell to the BTC price at US$108,600. It becomes an unusual thing.

Investors began to lose optimism about the rate cut. They assess the cut is accompanied by the Fed's concern about the possibility of the American economy began to spiral out of control. This is due to still strong retail consumption but unemployment claims in America are projected to increase in the future.

The Fed called this move a risk management-based cut. His comments hint that the move is more of a preventive cut just in case the economy slows drastically and disappoints markets.

The Fed also stressed that the rate cut is not because the economy has fallen badly, but rather as a preventive measure so that the risk of economic weakness is not getting bigger.

What is Bitcoin's potential going forward?

As the country with the highest gross domestic product (GDP), America has an important role in creating liquidity in the market for all types of assets ranging from low to high risk assets.

The problem that is happening in America today, especially the shutdown, is not just a problem of employment and inflation, but a more structural problem that is the American economy itself.

Political events, such as government shutdowns or leadership changes, can trigger a domino effect that affects the global regulatory framework. 

This creates uncertainty, so that high-class investors pivot from creating profits in the future, towards prioritizing reducing the risk of losing wealth or can be said to be more defensive (fear) than aggressive mode (greed). Although it seems that retail investors see this as a good potential and a good time to buy high-risk assets such as Bitcoin and the stock market.

Cycle Once Every 4 Years Bitcoin:

In addition to structural problems in America, the crypto market has a tendency to decline in asset prices after 3-3.5 years from the low of the previous cycle that occurred in November 2022. Retail investors are expected to see this as something to watch out for even though upward market movements are still possible.

Speculators looking to get into the Bitcoin market should still be cautious as always. Support levels can be used to identify potential upside moves. 

However, if Bitcoin falls below the low of early September and approaches US$100,000, this could lead to volatility in the Bitcoin market.

Bitcoin has not experienced a sharp decline over the past few months. If Bitcoin breaks above$125,000 in October and manages to hold, this could attract a further influx of speculative strength.

Diversify assets into several types of investment instruments as implemented by the legendary Investor Ray Dalio, who uses the principle of "All Weather Investment Strategy". Investors can allocate 25% in each type of investment, namely :

1. Assets that generate profits from growth conditions such as stocks, crypto and other risk-on assets.
2. Assets that create profits from decline conditions such as long-term debt securities.
3. Assets that generate profits from rising inflation conditions such as commodities and debt securities that have an interest rate base.
4. Assets that generate profits from falling inflation such as large stocks and short-term debt securities.

The key is to balance these assets not based on the value of the currency, but based on the risk. 

The concept we pioneered is called "risk parity". Since stocks are much more volatile (risky) than bonds, you need to own a much larger number of bonds to balance the risk of a smaller number of stocks.

*Disclaimer :

The Analyses expressed on Umetonews are for informational purposes online.

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