$76K Bitcoin Trap:Your Brain's Wiring Is Setting You Up

That $76,000 level feels like victory—but your brain's reward circuitry may be walking you into a classic bull trap. Here's what's really happening beneath the surface.

Bitcoin price movements are still overshadowed by a bearish correction after repeatedly failing to close daily trading above the level of US$70,000 or around Rp1.1 billion. Currently, Bitcoin is moving in a range below US$70,000 so the next direction is still debated by crypto analysts.

Launching Trading View, Friday (20/2/2026) some market participants assess that the current price structure can be the foundation for further increases. 

However, other analysts warn that any rally could potentially trigger a new wave of selling.

Crypto analyst Sherlock is among those who are cautious and considers a rally to the range of US$72,000 to US$76,000 could be a dangerous zone for investors. He said the area has the potential to become a "kill zone" for Bitcoin bulls.

Sherlock highlights the ownership of Bitcoin by the Strategy company. Currently the company holds 714,644 BTC with an average acquisition price of US$76,052, equivalent to about 3.4% of the total Bitcoin supply that will ever exist.

With the price of Bitcoin around US$68,000, the position of the Strategy is now in a state of unrealized loss of around US$5.7 billion. According to Sherlock, any increase towards$74,000 - $76,000 would bring those large holdings closer to breakeven.

The break-even Level is often a selling area for large investors. Therefore, the area of US$76,000 is considered risky because it coincides with the average entry price of the Strategy which has the potential to encourage exposure reduction.

However, there is no indication the Strategy will sell its holdings. The company has repeatedly said it has no intention of releasing Bitcoin and that its balance sheet is capable of withstanding a sharp drop, including if the price falls below$10,000.

Sherlock also highlighted the added pressure of Spot Bitcoin ETF products. Currently around 1.28 million BTC are in the fund with an estimated average entry price in the range of US$84,000 to US$90,000.

Since the end of 2025, the ETF recorded a net outflow of more than US$6 billion. This condition is considered to be able to add price pressure even if Bitcoin returns close to the average purchase price.

It adds about 63% of invested Bitcoin wealth has a cost base above US$88,000. This means that most buyers in 2025 are still at a loss and a rally towards that level could potentially become a bull trap.

Thus, the rise to the area of US$72,000-US$76,000 is considered potentially the first bull trap. Otherwise, the next trap could arise around US$88,000.

Even so, if every breakeven level always triggers a sell-off, Bitcoin may never form a price bottom.

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