3-Year Bitcoin Low Zone:Your Trigger Finger Is Waiting—But Not Yet

The closest buy zone in three years is here.Your brain's reward system is screaming " ENTER NOW."But the real signal hasn't fired. Learn to override the urge. 

Bitcoin (BTC), the world's largest cryptocurrency, is approaching an area historically known as the buy zone. However, on-chain data shows that the market has not yet fully reached the conditions that usually mark the lows of the cycle.

Currently, the price of Bitcoin is still above the average purchase price of investors, known as the realized price. That is, most Bitcoin holders are still in a profit position.

This condition makes a large selling pressure, which usually appears when the market reaches the bottom, is not yet visible.

Bitcoin Has Not Yet Entered The Classic Accumulation Zone

Based on CryptoQuant data quoted from CoinDesk, the realized price of Bitcoin is currently in the range of US$54,286. Meanwhile, the spot price is around us$68,774.

The difference between the two reached about US$14,500 or about 21 percent. This suggests that the price of Bitcoin is still quite far above the average purchase price of investors as a whole.

If you look at previous cycles, especially during the 2022 bear market, the lowest point occurred when the Bitcoin price fell below the realized price. In the period from June to October 2022, Bitcoin briefly traded about 15 percent below the average purchase price, which coincided with the lowest point in the range of US$15,500.

Similar conditions also occurred when the market collapsed due to the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020. At that time, the majority of investors suffered losses, triggering huge selling pressure and opening up long-term accumulation opportunities.

Rather, the current conditions are different. With prices still around 21 percent above the realized price, the market has not experienced the extreme pressure that is usually a strong signal of the formation of the price bottom.

Correction Potential Still Open

In order for Bitcoin to really enter the historical accumulation zone, the price needs to fall close to the realized price, which is about US$54,000. This means that there is still a potential drop of around 20 percent from current levels.

Even so, there is one thing that is quite interesting, the difference between the market price and the realized price is shrinking very quickly. By the end of 2024, when Bitcoin briefly touched more than US$119,000, the difference reached about 120 percent. Now, in about 15 months, the difference has dropped dramatically to 21 percent.

This movement indicates a rapid adjustment phase, although it cannot yet be called a full reset of the market.

A number of other on-chain indicators also reinforce that the market has not bottomed yet. One of them is the Coinbase Premium Index, which again went into the negative zone, which indicates a weakening demand from institutional investors in the United States.

In addition, there has not yet been a major capitulation phase, which is a condition when investors sell assets massively due to panic. In fact, this phase is usually an important marker before the price reaches the bottom of the cycle.

Prices remain resilient amid Global pressure

On the other hand, Bitcoin was still able to hold in the range of US$65,000 to US$70,000 in recent weeks, although amid rising global geopolitical tensions ( check real live btc data: https://umetonews.blogspot.com/2025/05/btc-live-chart.html)

The inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs that exceeded US$1 billion throughout March also shows that buying interest is still quite strong.

However, without the huge selling pressure that triggered the capitulation, the market is considered to have not fully reached the condition that has historically been a major turning point.

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