5 factors behind Bitcoin's new record high in October 2025

Bitcoin (BTC), the world's largest crypto asset by market capitalization, again set a new record high price at the level of US$126,000 on Tuesday (7/10/2025). The advance marks a continuation of a rally that has been going on since the middle of this year.

According to CoinMarketCap data, the price of Bitcoin continued to strengthen until it reached a new record at US$126,198, with a market capitalization of US$2.51 trillion, an all-time high. 

This level surpassed the previous record set the day before, when Bitcoin for the first time broke the level of US$125,000 at the end of last week.

Analysts said the surge was triggered by a combination of global factors and traders ' sentiment towards Bitcoin as a hedge asset other than gold. 

Here are five main factors that support Bitcoin's price increase this time.

1. “Uptober”Sentiment:

Bitcoin's Momentum at the beginning of the fourth quarter was mainly strengthened by the phenomenon of “Uptober”, a popular term in the crypto community to describe the historical trend of rising Bitcoin prices every October.

Historically, October has been one of the best months for the world's largest cryptocurrency, with monthly returns reaching 20.74% since 2013, according to CoinGlass data.

2. U.S. political uncertainty due to government Shutdown:

The condition of the United States government, accompanied by a shutdown, is one of the strong triggers for capital inflows into Bitcoin. 

This condition occurred because the US Congress failed to agree on a budget, so various government agencies had to stop most of their activities. As a result, political and economic uncertainty increased.

Fabian Dori, Chief Investment Officer at Sygnum Bank, explained that this political dysfunction lowers public confidence in traditional institutions and encourages investors to seek more independent assets such as Bitcoin.

With the absence of new economic data due to the shutdown, the market is now counting on expectations that the US central bank Federal Reserve will again cut interest rates, strengthening the attractiveness of Bitcoin as an alternative to the US dollar.

3. Weakening US Dollar:

The US dollar is now on track for its worst annual decline since 1973, weakening more than 10% since the beginning of the year. 

In a post on X on (5/10/2025), analysts from The Kobeissi Letter explained that the combination of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, rising inflation, and weakening labor markets has changed the direction of global monetary policy.

According to analysts from The Kobeissi Letter, this phenomenon marks a major change in market behavior, safe haven assets, which usually move opposite to stocks, are now showing a unidirectional pattern.

For example, the correlation between gold and the US stock index S&P 500 reached 0.91 in 2024, the highest level in recent decades. That is, both risk assets and hedge assets are now both rising amid a major shift in the direction of global monetary policy, a sign that confidence in traditional money is changing.

4. Surge in funds to Bitcoin ETFs:

Bitcoin-based Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) products in the United States recorded large inflows of US$3.24 billion in the past week, according to SoSoValue data.

Eleven Bitcoin spot ETF products in the US also continued to record significant positive fund flows, with the highest daily inflow reaching US$1.21 billion in October 6 trading. 

This number became the second largest since the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF in early January 2024, while demonstrating the growing institutional interest.

5. Reduced supply of Bitcoin on exchanges:

The spike in the price of Bitcoin also occurs in conjunction with a decrease in the supply of Bitcoin on the spot exchange, creating a supply squeeze condition, referring to the scarcity of supply that drives the price up in the open market.

Jean-David Péquignot, Deribit's Chief Commercial Officer, called this combination creating a “self-reinforcing bull cycle”, in which the more funds go into an ETF, the less Bitcoin is available on the market, pushing the price up, and ultimately attracting more new investors.

Although a short-term correction is still possible, strong macro trends indicate that confidence in Bitcoin as a global asset is now at its highest point in history.

 Meanwhile, this increase also confirms the role of Bitcoin which is increasingly recognized as a major digital asset amid global economic changes.

A number of analysts expect Bitcoin's rally is still not over.

In a post on X, crypto analyst CrediBULL Crypto assessed that Bitcoin's latest movement has opened a new upward phase towards the US$150,000 range.

"After breaking the previous high impulsively, the next stage towards$150,000 has begun,” he wrote.

He added that although a correction to the US$108,000–US$118,000 area is still possible, the move could actually be a buying opportunity for medium-term investors.

"If the price has time to drop into that area, think of it as an opportunity, and if not, just enjoy the ride to$150,000,” he added.

A similar view was expressed by crypto trader crypto Chase who assessed that “a new wave of upside seems increasingly likely” as long as market strength is maintained.

*Disclaimer :

The Analyses expressed on Umetonews are for informational purposes online.

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