Hayes Bitcoin Analyzer: new Era of the Bitcoin cycle a more macroeconomic phase
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The Founder of BitMEX Arthur Hayes ' statement reinforces the view that the crypto market is now entering a new way, more macroeconomic phase.
With global liquidity, monetary policy, and institutional capital flows as the main drivers, Bitcoin may no longer revolve around traditional halving patterns.
But for investors, Hayes ' message is clear: a new Era of Bitcoin has already begun, and ‘Long Bull’ may not be just a slogan — but rather the next direction of the market.
Hayes emphasized that the price of Bitcoin is now no longer controlled by the halving schedule, but by global liquidity and the monetary policies of the United States and China. Why is that?
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4-Year Cycle Bitcoin Price Has Changed.
The classic Bitcoin cycle that always rotates every four years — following a halving pattern-is no longer relevant.
Hayes considered that the supply of the US dollar and the Chinese yuan is now the main factor determining the direction of the Bitcoin price.
The current price of Bitcoin reflects the market reaction to the liquidity expansion of the world's two largest economies.
In other words, when the US or China relax the money supply policy, capital flows flow into risky assets — including Bitcoin.
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The U.S. and China have entered a new era of bullishness.
The difference in monetary policy between these two countries creates a new market structure.
The U.S. now faces a large fiscal deficit and high interest rates, while China is beginning to loosen policies to recover the economy from deflationary pressures.
This condition, according to Hayes, fuels the “new bull era of Bitcoin.”
“In addition to the U.S., China is also showing signs of shifting to looser policies to tackle deflation. If both continue monetary easing, Bitcoin will rise again, " Hayes said.
Hayes also alluded to US President Donald Trump's policies that are considered to increase inflation risks through budget deficits, which can actually encourage investors to look for hedging assets such as Bitcoin.
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ETFs and new market structures.
The presence of the Bitcoin spot ETF ( Exchange-Traded Fund ) and the participation of large financial institutions have completely changed the character of the Bitcoin market.
In the past, the price of Bitcoin was fueled by surging retail interest after the halving. Now, large capital and institutional funds are the main drivers.
According to him, the crypto market is now more in sync with the global liquidity cycle, not the halving calendar anymore.
Therefore, the movement of Bitcoin in 2025-2026 is likely to be much longer and deeper than the previous cycle.
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Bitcoin Remains The Best Form Of Money.
Despite changing views on the cycle, Hayes still insists on his belief in Bitcoin as the most superior form of money in history.
He wrote that the value of Bitcoin is fixed relative to the dollar, but its true strength lies in its decentralized nature and scarcity.
"Bitcoin is the best form of money in human history. Its value may still be measured in dollars, but its value itself does not depend on anyone.”
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